Tariff Uncertainty and AI Forecasting Are Reshaping Global Freight Planning

Global freight planners are entering 2026 with a paradox: global export growth has been revised up to 2.43% year-over-year, yet tariff uncertainty is distorting shipment timing, and excess carrier capacity is capping rate recovery. At the same time, AI-powered forecasting and real-time data tools are rapidly moving from experimentation to core infrastructure, reshaping how shippers plan networks, bids, and inventory across North America and other major trade corridors.

Tariff volatility is now a structural planning variable

UPS’s Q2 2026 freight and logistics trends highlight what many shippers already experience operationally: tariffs are no longer episodic shocks but a continuous planning constraint. The update notes that tariff uncertainty is still influencing shipping behavior and shipment timing, as companies pull forward orders ahead of announced measures or delay bookings while waiting for political clarity on key corridors such as US–China and US–EU.

This aligns with ongoing coverage from Supply Chain Dive, which tracks evolving US trade actions and EU responses, including EU lawmakers backing a trade pact with safeguards and renewed attention on US–China trade boards. For freight planners, this means quarterly network plans are increasingly insufficient; tariff calendars and negotiation timelines must be embedded into weekly capacity and routing decisions, especially for tariff-exposed sectors such as metals, autos, and electronics.

2.43%

Revised global export growth forecast for 2026, per UPS Q2 outlook

5.0%

Transportation & warehousing cost increase in April, per Supply Chain Dive

Overcapacity meets policy risk: a new freight market equilibrium

The 2026 freight market is defined by an unusual combination: structurally high capacity and structurally high policy risk. According to UPS’s quarterly trends, capacity kept pace with demand through much of 2025, holding global rates relatively flat. As carriers continued to add aircraft and vessels, capacity is expected to match or exceed demand again in 2026, particularly on core East–West trades. Rate declines in late 2025 and early 2026—UPS reports global freight rates falling roughly 2.2% year-over-year in December—underscore how excess capacity is compressing margins even as volumes recover.

Yet this surplus is unevenly distributed. Trans-Pacific lanes remain oversupplied, while carriers are actively reconfiguring networks in response to tariff and geopolitical risk. UPS notes vessel deployment shifts and schedule adjustments as carriers rebalance toward lanes perceived as less exposed to sudden trade measures. Scan Global Logistics similarly reports that the US/Israel–Iran conflict is reshaping some global transportation flows, with oil price volatility emerging as a key concern even as direct air cargo disruption remains limited so far.

"Capacity is expected to match or exceed demand in 2026; however, rates are unlikely to be impacted significantly due to trade lane imbalance."
— UPS, 2026 Q2 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends

This environment pushes shippers toward more dynamic routing and procurement strategies. Fixed annual awards on a narrow set of lanes expose networks to both tariff shocks and capacity whiplash. Instead, shippers are increasingly diversifying routings (for example, Asia–Europe via multiple gateways) and pairing core long-term contracts with flexible, digitally managed spot programs that can pivot as policy and rate conditions shift.

Tariffs, inflation, and the cost of resilience

Tariff volatility is not occurring in isolation; it interacts with underlying cost inflation, especially in energy and upstream materials. Supply Chain Dive reports that US transportation and warehousing costs rose 5% in April, while wholesale energy prices jumped 7.8%, driven by conflict-linked oil price spikes and supply disruptions. Plastic packaging suppliers are flagging ongoing disruption tied to Middle East tensions, with some experts not expecting conditions to normalize before 2027. These pressures pass through to freight rates, bunker and fuel surcharges, and last-mile delivery costs, even where base freight rates remain under structural pressure from overcapacity.

At the same time, carriers and integrators are restructuring networks to restore profitability in this low-yield, high-risk context. FedEx’s Network 2.0 restructuring—tracked by Supply Chain Dive—highlights ongoing closures of US ship centers and consolidation of ground and air operations. While focused on parcel, these changes ripple into broader freight flows, regional capacity availability, and service options for shippers relying on integrator networks for cross-border e-commerce and high-value cargo.

AI forecasting moves from experimentation to operating system

Against this backdrop, AI is no longer a “nice to have” analytics layer; it is quickly becoming the operating system for freight planning. UPS emphasizes that AI-powered forecasting and real-time data tools are reducing errors and enabling faster, more accurate inventory and capacity planning across supply chains. This is a pragmatic shift, not hype. With tariff measures, fuel price spikes, and geopolitical incidents landing with limited warning, legacy planning cycles—monthly S&OP, static demand plans, and manual spreadsheet-based allocation—cannot keep pace.

Three AI use cases are rising to the top in 2026:

1. Demand and booking forecasting under policy regimes. Instead of forecasting only aggregate volume, leading shippers now model “policy-adjusted demand,” factoring in likely tariff dates, expected pre-shipment surges, and potential slowdowns if measures extend. Machine learning models can ingest historical shipment responses to past tariff episodes, trade-board announcements, and even media sentiment, enabling more realistic lane-level forecasts than rule-of-thumb adjustments.

2. Dynamic routing and mode optimization. As UPS notes, carriers are shifting deployments due to trade lane imbalance. AI decision-support tools can simulate trade-offs between ocean, air, and intermodal routes under different scenarios: a new tariff list, a spike in bunker fuel, or a regional conflict that diverts vessels. When oil prices rise sharply—such as the recent war-driven spike reported by Scan Global Logistics—these models can quickly recalibrate optimal mode mix and routing to protect margins while maintaining service levels.

3. Real-time risk sensing and inventory positioning. By integrating data from logistics newsfeeds, port congestion dashboards, and carrier notifications, AI agents can recommend pre-emptive actions: pulling forward purchase orders, repositioning safety stock to inland hubs, or shifting e-commerce fulfillment from one DC to another. This kind of continuous planning is increasingly critical for North American retailers and manufacturers exposed to tariff-driven demand swings and last-minute policy announcements.

From visibility to actionability: the digital 3PL and e-commerce effect

The rise of digital 3PLs and flexible fulfillment models is amplifying these AI dynamics. UPS’s Q2 outlook notes “ongoing pressure from eCommerce, flexible fulfillment needs, and digital 3PL demand.” For shippers, especially in North America, this translates into shorter planning horizons, more frequent promotional spikes, and higher expectations for same-day or next-day delivery—all while tariffs and energy costs add noise to cost structures.

Digital 3PLs and online freight platforms are differentiating by embedding AI into their core offerings: automated quoting, dynamic capacity matching, and predictive delay alerts. For small and mid-market shippers, these tools effectively “rent” advanced analytics that would be too costly to build in-house, enabling them to respond to tariff changes and rate shifts almost as quickly as larger multinationals. This democratization of forecasting and optimization capabilities is narrowing the gap between top-tier and mid-market logistics performance.

7.8%

Wholesale energy price increase reported amid conflict-driven oil shocks

5%

Rise in transportation & warehousing costs in April, adding pressure to freight budgets

Scenario-based planning: blending tariffs and technology

In this environment, leading shippers in North America, the UK, and Oceania are converging on a common planning playbook that tightly couples tariff scenarios with AI-enabled tools:

Build tariff-specific demand and routing scenarios. Rather than a single “base case,” logistics teams are modeling multiple tariff paths—status quo, partial escalation, and broader expansion—and stress-testing freight networks across each. AI forecasting engines can rapidly generate lane-level demand and rate expectations for each scenario, enabling procurement and finance to align on contingency budgets and contract structures.

Recalibrate contract and spot mix using AI signals. With UPS and other analysts expecting capacity to meet or outstrip demand in 2026, shippers have leverage—but only if they understand lane-specific dynamics. AI tools that ingest real-time rate indices, carrier blank sailing patterns, and booking data can suggest when to lean into spot markets versus locking in fixed terms. On oversupplied lanes with stable policy risk, shorter-duration or index-linked contracts may make sense; on tariff-exposed or constrained corridors, shippers may favor more structured agreements with clear surge and diversion clauses.

Use AI to translate macro volatility into operational playbooks. Many organizations still struggle to move from “we know tariffs are volatile” to “here is how we adjust routing and inventory next week.” Modern AI platforms can bridge this gap by converting news, regulatory updates, and market signals into specific operational actions—changing port pairs, adjusting buffer stock by node, or reallocating e-commerce fulfillment volumes between regions.

Decarbonization and resilience: the next frontier for AI-led planning

Even as tariffs and inflation dominate the 2026 conversation, decarbonization is quietly shaping medium-term freight planning and technology choices. Scan Global Logistics’ launch of a second electric cross-border truck between Malaysia and Singapore illustrates how low-emission corridors are becoming operational reality, not pilot projects. In North America and Europe, similar investments in electric trucks and alternative fuels will complicate network design: planners must weigh tariff and cost considerations alongside carbon constraints, charging infrastructure, and emerging regulatory requirements.

AI will play a central role here as well. Optimization models that currently juggle transit time, cost, and reliability will need to add emissions as a fourth dimension, helping shippers select routes and modes that stay within carbon budgets while remaining responsive to tariff and rate volatility. Over the next cycle, the most advanced freight planning teams will be those able to integrate these dimensions—policy, price, performance, and planet—into a single, AI-enabled decision framework.

Fontes: UPS – 2026 Q2 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends, UPS – Freight and Logistics News and Market Updates, Supply Chain Dive – Tariffs, producer prices, and FedEx Network 2.0 coverage, Scan Global Logistics – Market updates on conflict and sustainable transport, Phaata – Asia-focused logistics market updates

Turn tariff turbulence into data-driven decisions