US-Mexico Truck Flows Are Slipping as USMCA Review Nears

Mexican truck exports to the U.S. fell 5.9% year-over-year in March, according to UPS’s latest freight trends report, flashing a warning signal just as North America heads into the pivotal July 1, 2026 USMCA six-year review process.[2] Against a backdrop of softer freight demand, tighter capital spending by fleets, and rising policy risk on both sides of the border, U.S.–Mexico truck flows are slipping at precisely the moment when regulatory uncertainty is set to increase.[2][5]

From Outperformer to Soft Patch: The State of US–Mexico Truck Flows

For much of the last three years, U.S.–Mexico truck freight has been the bright spot in an otherwise volatile North American market. The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported that U.S.–Mexico freight by value rose 4.2% year over year to $73.8 billion in August 2024, while U.S.–Canada flows declined 6.4% over the same period.[3] Trucks accounted for $90.7 billion of total North American transborder freight in that snapshot, far eclipsing rail’s $16.9 billion.[3]

More broadly, BTS data show U.S. freight flows with Mexico reached $798.8 billion in 2023, underscoring Mexico’s emergence as the United States’ top trade partner by value.[6] That strength has been underpinned by nearshoring momentum, resilient U.S. consumer demand, and heavy OEM investment in Mexican manufacturing capacity.[2][4][6]

Yet more recent indicators suggest a pause. UPS’s Q2 freight and logistics trends note that Mexican truck exports to the U.S. dropped 5.9% year-over-year in March, signaling weakening equipment flows and a more cautious posture from carriers and shippers.[2] FreightWaves reporting on Mexico’s heavy-duty truck sector points to “weak freight demand and cautious fleet investment” as core drivers of that slowdown.[5]

This soft patch does not negate the long-term nearshoring story, but it does change the tactical environment for carriers, shippers, and 3PLs through the USMCA review window. Instead of a straight-line growth narrative, cross-border trucking is entering a phase of policy-driven volatility.

Policy Clouds: Tariffs, Cash-Flow Relief, and the USMCA Clock

Regulation—not demand—is increasingly the key swing factor for North American truck flows. Three policy vectors stand out for US–Mexico trade over the next 18–24 months:

1. The USMCA six-year review. UPS highlights that the mandatory USMCA review formally begins on July 1, 2026, with pre-review positioning already underway.[2] Uber Freight similarly flags the 2026 review as a “pivotal moment for North American trade,” with the potential to reset expectations on rules of origin, labor provisions, and dispute resolution.[2] For carriers and shippers that have built long-term strategies around USMCA’s current framework, this introduces a new layer of optionality—and risk.

2. Mexico’s new tariffs on Asian imports. C.H. Robinson notes that Mexico implemented new and higher tariffs on a wide range of imports from Asia—including auto parts, steel, aluminum, plastics, and consumer goods—effective January 1, 2026.[1] These tariffs, ranging from 5% to 50%, affect about $51.9 billion in trade.[1] Since roughly 44% of Mexican imports come from impacted Asian countries (versus 38% from the U.S. and Canada), these measures could reshape sourcing and routing decisions over time.[1] In the near term, they raise input costs for Mexican manufacturers, 77% of whose imports are intermediate goods used in exports.[1]

3. Expanding U.S. customs/tariff relief. While Mexico raises some tariffs, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is processing an expanding wave of tariff refunds tied to duties invalidated by the courts. Accepted tariff refund claims have risen to $85 billion, and CBP had completed around $20.6 billion in certified refunds with interest by May 22, 2026.[5] For importers with heavy U.S.–Mexico volumes, this is a significant cash-flow tailwind and could partially offset freight softness by freeing up working capital for inventory and transportation commitments.[5]

"Looking ahead, the 2026 United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement review, scheduled for July, will be a pivotal moment for North American trade."

— Uber Freight market outlook[2]

Taken together, these developments create a paradox: regulatory noise is rising just as cross-border freight fundamentals are wobbling, but some policy moves—like U.S. tariff refunds—are simultaneously injecting liquidity into shipper balance sheets. That mix encourages defensive posture on network commitments even as it supports continued investment in North American sourcing.

Demand Weakness and Cautious Fleets: Why Truck Flows Are Slipping Now

The 5.9% decline in Mexican truck exports to the U.S. in March sits within a broader picture of freight softness and fleet caution across North America.[2][5] Several cyclical and structural factors are converging:

Soft freight demand. UPS’s global freight update points to sluggish cargo demand in multiple modes, with global air cargo demand down 3% year over year in March and volumes affected by geopolitical disruptions.[2] While air and truck dynamics differ, the data underscores a general demand-sensitive environment in which shippers are highly price-conscious and willing to defer or consolidate shipments.

Cautious fleet investment. FreightWaves notes that Mexico’s heavy-duty truck sector shows “continued weakness,” driven by weak freight demand and elevated equipment and financing costs.[5] That slows replacement cycles, limits incremental capacity additions, and reduces the pool of tractors available for cross-border service, especially on capital-intensive dedicated lanes.

Shifting cost structures. Parcel carriers such as UPS and FedEx have raised international fuel surcharges and added surge fees, transmitting higher energy costs directly into cross-border pricing.[5] While these data points refer to parcel, they are directionally relevant for truckload and LTL operators sourcing from the same fuel markets. Higher fuel and insurance costs compress margins and make fleets more selective about cross-border exposure if volume visibility is weak.

Security and infrastructure constraints. Cross-border operators continue to highlight cargo theft and inland infrastructure gaps inside Mexico as constraints on network design and cost.[4] In interviews, operators cite theft “across the country” and insufficient infrastructure as structural challenges that require additional mitigation spend.[4] Those risks become harder to justify when rates are under pressure and volumes are not growing at prior-year levels.

Global Trade Volatility Is Rewiring Routing Choices

Cross-border truck weakness is also occurring against a backdrop of global trade disruption that is reshaping routing and mode choice into North America. UPS reports that Middle East conflict is altering ocean and air cargo service design, with vessel diversions and alternative routings around high-risk chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.[2] That has helped push global air cargo rates up 8.7% year over year in March even as volumes declined.[2]

At the same time, a logistics news recap cited in the supplied materials describes how 96% of key global ports experienced some form of disruption in mid-2025, driven by aging infrastructure, equipment shortages, weather, and geopolitics.[3] Although that dataset is not from the last week, it provides useful context: shippers are facing a world where ocean and air reliability are more variable, and nearshoring to Mexico is, in theory, an attractive hedge.[3]

However, when border trucking itself becomes subject to tariff uncertainty and capacity hesitation, the “port alternative” narrative becomes more nuanced. Some U.S. importers are reassessing the balance between Asia–U.S. direct ocean services and Asia–Mexico–U.S. “land bridge” models, especially now that Mexico’s new tariffs raise the cost of routing Asian-origin inputs through Mexico.[1]

Strategic Implications Through the USMCA Review Window

The approaching USMCA review crystallizes a medium-term planning horizon for shippers and fleets. The key question is not whether U.S.–Mexico trade will grow—BTS data and nearshoring investment strongly suggest it will—but how volatile that growth path becomes over 2026–2028.[2][3][6]

Several strategic themes are emerging in the market commentary and data:

1. Network optionality over point bets. With truck exports slipping and policy risk rising, shippers are increasingly designing networks with parallel flows: retaining some Asia–U.S. direct capacity, building Mexico-based production where USMCA advantages are clear, and preserving the ability to rebalance volumes if review outcomes affect rules of origin or sector-specific provisions.[1][2]

2. Cash-flow as a logistics lever. The $85 billion in accepted U.S. tariff refund claims—and the $20.6 billion already paid—give import-intensive shippers a unique opportunity to reinvest in resilience initiatives such as cross-dock upgrades at the border, visibility platforms, or dedicated capacity agreements.[5] Carriers that can tie capacity offers to these cash-flow tailwinds may be better positioned to lock in multi-year commitments ahead of the USMCA review.[5]

3. Decarbonization and differentiation. While not yet mainstream in North American cross-border flows, developments such as Scan Global Logistics deploying its second electric cross-border truck between Malaysia and Singapore show how EV trucks are entering the cross-border playbook elsewhere.[4] As USMCA discussions inevitably touch on sustainability and industrial policy, early pilots in low-emission cross-border trucking could become a differentiator for shippers serving ESG-focused customers.[2][4]

What Carriers and Shippers Should Watch Next

For logistics leaders managing U.S.–Mexico truck capacity, three monitoring priorities stand out as the review nears and cross-border flows soften:

Border-side freight indicators. Monthly data on Mexican truck exports to the U.S., cross-border spot and contract rates, and U.S. tractor order trends will signal how deep the current soft patch runs and when fleets start to tighten again.[2][5] Given Uber Freight’s view that the U.S. truck market could tighten into 2026, early inflection points in capacity will matter.[2]

USMCA review positioning. Public statements from North American trade officials, sectoral lobbying around automotive and agriculture, and any early proposals on rules of origin or labor enforcement will shape the risk profile of specific supply chains.[1][2] Companies heavily exposed to autos, steel, or electronics should scenario-test tariff or content-rule changes well before July 2026.

Tariff and refund policy drift. The next steps in U.S. tariff litigation and CBP refund processing—alongside Mexico’s evolving tariff posture toward Asia—will influence where value is created and captured in North American manufacturing networks.[1][5] A more rules-driven, board-based U.S.–China trade management framework, as indicated by plans for a new trade board focused on non-tariff barriers, could also alter the calculus on when to source from Asia vs. nearshore to Mexico.[5]

In the meantime, logistics teams are operating in a liminal phase: U.S.–Mexico remains the structural growth story in North American freight, yet recent data show that truck flows are not immune to cyclical demand weakness and policy whiplash. The carriers and shippers that use this window to build optionality—on routing, capacity, and regulatory scenarios—will be best positioned when the USMCA review moves from background risk to front-page driver of cross-border freight decisions.

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Fontes: UPS Quarterly Freight and Logistics Trends

Fontes: C.H. Robinson North America Freight Insights

Fontes: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics – Border Freight Resiliency

Fontes: FreightWaves – Mexico Truck Exports to U.S. Fall in March

Fontes: Supply Chain Dive – Logistics News

Fontes: Scan Global Logistics News